Bernstein forecasts Bitcoin to reclaim $125K by late 2026 ahead of cycle peak

Wall Street research company Bernstein expects Bitcoin to recover from its latest downturn, reclaim its 2025 high and set new records in the coming years heading into the peak of its historical cycle.

Bernstein expects Bitcoin (BTC) to reclaim $125,000 by late 2026 under both its base and bull cases, according to a research report published Wednesday and seen by Cointelegraph.

The company said Bitcoin gained 28% over the previous 10 days after falling about 50% from its October 2025 peak, a rebound that could signal the end of the current bear cycle.

The analysts’ call comes as institutional investors and corporate Bitcoin buyers play a bigger role in the market, which Bernstein said provided greater downside support during the latest cycle and contributed to a smaller drawdown than the 75% to 90% declines of previous cycles.

Next cycle could see Bitcoin reach $300,000

Bernstein’s base case puts Bitcoin at $150,000 by mid-2027 before reaching a cycle peak of about $300,000 in 2029. Its bull case puts the biggest crypto at $200,000 by mid-2027 and $500,000 in 2029.

The company maintained its longer-term BTC target of about $1 million by 2033 under both scenarios.

Bernstein’s forecast is based on Bitcoin’s historical four-year cycles, which the company links to the halving, an event that cuts the amount of new Bitcoin awarded to miners roughly every four years. Bernstein divides each cycle into four phases: breakout, hype, drawdown and accumulation.