Bitcoin Could Deliver 3-5x Returns This Cycle as Volatility Fades

Bitcoin’s Return Potential Comes With a Different Trade-Off

Bitcoin investors could face smaller cycle gains alongside shallower losses as institutional ownership expands, according to Ki Young Ju, founder and CEO of Cryptoquant, a cryptocurrency analytics platform. In his Sept. 22 bitcoin cycle forecast on X, he argued that a larger market is reducing the extremes associated with earlier speculative booms.

Ju stated:

“I expect this bitcoin bull cycle to deliver 3–5x rather than another 10x+ parabolic rally, followed by a milder bear market.”

“When Bitcoin was smaller and retail dominated, hot money fueled explosive rallies and 80% crashes. Today, a much larger market and growing institutional ownership are dampening both extremes. The same forces that limit the upside also soften the downside,” he explained.

Ju’s outlook aligns with Fidelity Digital Assets’ historical analysis, which documented bitcoin’s declining volatility in May 2024. The financial giant explained that capital entering a larger market should have a smaller price impact. Its research documented declining volatility over time while distinguishing historical correlations from evidence that a particular price outcome must follow.