Bitcoin ETFs Are Back but It's 'Too Early' to Get Bullish, Wintermute Says

Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) ETFs pulled in $854 million last week, their best haul since April, but the Wintermute over-the-counter desk said more is needed before turning outright bullish.

Why Everything Rallied Last Week

Wintermute’s weekly market update said the catalyst was a single jobs print.

U.S. payrolls fell 23,000 in July against forecasts of plus 80,000, which knocked September Fed rate hike odds from 55% to 40% and sent risk assets higher across the board.

Weekly Performance by Asset

Brent crude was the exception, falling 6.85% as Iran and Oman moved toward a navigation framework for the Strait of Hormuz, easing a geopolitical risk premium that had been supporting oil prices.

Why Wintermute Calls the Jobs Report ‘Soft for the Wrong Reasons’

Unemployment fell to 4.1%, but Wintermute says that’s misleading. The drop came from 264,000 people leaving the labor force, not from more jobs being filled.

Labor force participation hit its lowest level outside COVID since 1976, and prior months’ job gains were revised down by 103,000.

Wednesday’s CPI report decides whether the rally holds. A hot print could reverse the rate-cut odds that drove last week’s gains.

What the ETF Numbers Actually Show

Meanwhile, ETH ETFs added $244.9 million for a fifth consecutive positive week.

Despite the inflows, Bitcoin underperformed the S&P 500 for the week even after touching an August high above $65,300 on the payrolls print.

Wintermute said that gap tells them the ETF buying is being met by supply somewhere in the market.

Why Wintermute is Not Yet Turning Bullish

Wintermute said last week it flagged the incremental seller as close to depleted, and the flows arrived as predicted.

But price barely moved, meaning the offside positioning the desk expected to get caught largely remains in place.

“ETF inflows are back, but we need to see them continue for a little longer before turning outright constructive,” Wintermute wrote.

The desk wants the ETF bid to hold through the end of summer before changing its view, especially with a hot CPI on Wednesday capable of pushing September hike odds back above 50% and removing the rally’s floor.