Bitcoin Faces Deeper Reset Risk as Bitfinex Warns of $70K Drop

Prices rebounded above $74,600 around 12:25 p.m. EST on Nov. 11, remaining below that threshold. Bitcoin eased to $74,157 by 5:35 p.m. EST, up 0.68% over 24 hours but down 7.15% over the week, 10.42% over the month, and 27.68% over the year.

Futures Positions Rise as Buyers Realize Losses

Aggregate futures open interest, the total exposure in contracts still open and unsettled, reached 701,900 $BTC around the Nov. 11 daily open. Exposure rose 3.3% from Nov. 8 while prices declined 2.6%, reinforcing bitcoin derivatives pressure. Bitfinex warned that continued bullish positioning increased the risk of forced selling.

A measure dividing recent holders’ sale proceeds by acquisition costs reached 0.989 on Nov. 10, equivalent to receiving 98.9 cents per dollar spent. Separately, 1.6 million $BTC bought between $75,000 and $80,000 was underwater, meaning worth less than its purchase price. Those holdings could create selling pressure during rebounds.

U.S. spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) lost approximately $399 million on Nov. 2. Corporate activity was mixed: Strategy Inc. (Nasdaq: MSTR) bought 1,036 $BTC from Nov. 2-8, while MARA Holdings Inc. (Nasdaq: MARA) disclosed selling 13,597 $BTC over the past six weeks. Bitfinex concluded that corporate buying was insufficient to offset ETF selling.