Bitcoin flashes 8 capitulation signals, but traders just spent $552 million protecting against another crash

Bitcoin is showing some of the strongest capitulation signals of the current downturn, suggesting the selloff may be entering a later stage even as the market offers little evidence of an imminent rebound.

Eight of the 12 indicators tracked by VanEck are currently flashing capitulation, while all 12 reached extreme levels at some point during the past three months.

The measures are designed to capture unusually severe market stress and selling pressure, conditions that have often clustered around the later stages of previous Bitcoin bear markets.

The readings come as Bitcoin trades around $65,000 after spending recent weeks trying to establish a floor above its June low of $58,500 following a sharp decline from its October 2025 peak of over $126,000.

The downturn is now entering its 10th month, bringing it closer to the duration of previous major bear markets.

Excluding the unusually short 2011 decline, the past three major drawdowns averaged about 12.7 months to reach their troughs, placing October or November within the historical window in which an accumulation phase could begin.

Yet VanEck's latest ChainCheck analysis suggests capitulation is a poor tool for timing that turn.

Bitcoin gained an average of 12.8% during the 90 days after eight to 12 capitulation indicators were triggered, below its broader 15.2% baseline return. Over 180 days, returns averaged 32%, again trailing the 36.3% baseline.