Bitcoin Halving Clock Hits 62%: Is the Bear Market Over?

Bitcoin has completed 62% of its current halving period, a stage where past bear markets bottomed or came close. Today also marks day 900 since the April 2024 halving.

BTC trades near $83,100. The price sits roughly 34% below its October 2025 peak and about 44% above its July low.

Where the Bitcoin Halving Clock Stands

The network sits at block 970,344, according to the Bitcoin.org countdown. The fifth halving triggers at block 1,050,000, which is 79,656 blocks away.

At the average pace of one block every 10 minutes, that points to April 2028. The event will cut the block reward from 3.125 BTC to 1.5625 BTC.

Measured in blocks, the current period is 62% complete. Some analysts argue the 4-year rhythm may give way to a longer cycle. Historically, though, timing has stayed consistent.

Bitcoin Halving at 62% Lines Up With Past Bottoms

Analyst The Rational Root mapped the 62% mark across all four halving cycles in a chart shared on X.

In the first cycle, that point arrived in early 2015. BTC set its bear market low that January.

In the third cycle, the mark landed in late 2022. The bottom near $15,500 followed in November 2022, after the FTX collapse.

Other analysts have also tried to time the cycle bottom using past patterns. The current cycle has already rebounded from a July low near $57,800.