Bitcoin jumps 8.7% after Treasury buyback plan sends yields lower

On August 19, the U.S. Treasury announced that starting September 9, it will at least double its long-end buybacks, and Bitcoin surged as much as 8.7%, reaching an intraday high of $69,749. Bitcoin’s biggest daily move since March 4 occurred not because of a cryptocurrency-related development, but due to a government announcement regarding debt management.

Bitcoin’s rally conforms to a simple macroeconomic thesis: larger Treasury buybacks put some downward pressure on long-term yields. If that downward pressure results in a significant drop in benchmark yields, it can lead to weakening of the dollar, relaxation of financial conditions, and a decline in the opportunity cost of holding Bitcoin.

The use of the word “if” is significant in this context. According to Treasury officials, this program has been designed to boost liquidity in older bonds, not deliver monetary stimulus. However, the scale of the program remains insignificant compared to the overall Treasury market.

Why a debt-plumbing notice moved crypto

Markets initially followed that chain almost step by step. Long-dated U.S. yields fell as much as 10 basis points, the 10-year yield dropped about 6 basis points to 4.66%, and the dollar index lost 0.84% to 98.80. Gold jumped 4.05%, while Bitcoin was up 6.06% at Reuters’ market snapshot before reaching its higher intraday peak reported by Decrypt.