Bitcoin Just Had Its Best Month Since 2024. A Crucial Jobs Report Could Put That Rally To The Test.

Bitcoin began September near $78,000 after its strongest monthly gain in nearly two years, but Friday's U.S. jobs report could quickly test the rally as traders sharply increase bets that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates later this month.

The cryptocurrency gained about 24% in August, its best monthly performance since November 2024. Investors are now turning their attention to the August employment report, the final major labor-market reading before the Fed's Sept. 15-16 policy meeting.

Expectations for higher interest rates have changed rapidly since Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's Jackson Hole speech last week, when he said policymakers still had work to do if inflation did not move convincingly toward the central bank's 2% target. Traders on Tuesday were assigning roughly a two-thirds probability to a quarter-point September rate increase, according to CME data cited by the Wall Street Journal, up from less than 40% a week earlier.

The first major labor reading of September offered a mixed picture Tuesday, with U.S. job openings rising by 89,000 to 7.27 million in July while hiring fell by 278,000 to 5.05 million. Reuters reported that economists expect nonfarm payrolls to rebound in August after an unexpected decline in July, leaving Friday's report particularly important for expectations surrounding the Fed.