Bitcoin may face one final decline before cycle recovery, Hashdex CIO says

Hashdex's Samir Kerbage says Bitcoin's historical four year cycle is changing as market volatility declines and institutional adoption expands.

Bitcoin may have already reached its bear market bottom or could face one final decline as its historical four year cycle evolves, according to Samir Kerbage, chief investment officer at crypto asset manager Hashdex.

The assessment comes as Bitcoin fell below $70,000 on Friday, extending a selloff that has pushed the asset roughly 45% below its October 2025 peak of approximately $126,000.

Kerbage said Bitcoin’s current cycle has followed a familiar historical pattern, although the size of its price swings has diminished considerably compared with previous cycles.

“Bitcoin sits 35% below its high and 37% above the June low, so either June was the bottom, earlier and shallower than any before it, or bitcoin still has a last leg to run,” Kerbage wrote in research circulated by Hashdex.

The figures reflect an earlier market snapshot. With Bitcoin trading near $69,000 on Friday, the asset was approximately 17% above its June low of $59,000.

According to Kerbage, Bitcoin declined 84% and 83% from peak to trough during its first two major cycles and 77% during the third. The current cycle’s deepest drawdown has been approximately 53%, reached in June.