Bitcoin Price Forecast: Hotter-Than-Expected US Inflation Drags BTC Below $74,000 as Bulls Eye $73,000 Support

TradingKey - On Thursday (November 12), Bitcoin (BTC) continued its recent downward trend. As of today's European trading session, Bitcoin fell below $74,000 intraday, with the latest price trading near $73,600. From a fundamental perspective, rising Federal Reserve rate-hike expectations and persistent ETF capital outflows are the two primary headwinds driving Bitcoin's recent decline.

The latest U.S. October CPI rose 0.4% month-over-month, exceeding market expectations of 0.3%, while core CPI climbed 0.3% month-over-month, also topping the expected 0.2%. Persistent inflationary pressures have further cemented market expectations of a Federal Reserve rate hike in December. Currently, the market prices in approximately an 87% probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike in December and about a 13% probability of a 50-basis-point hike. Meanwhile, the U.S. Dollar Index climbed to around 103. A stronger dollar and rising U.S. Treasury yields have enhanced the relative appeal of holding dollar- and bond-denominated assets, putting pressure on risk assets such as Bitcoin.

In terms of fund flows, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs continued to face redemptions. According to CoinGlass data, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs logged net outflows of $299.8 million on November 11, up from $95 million in the prior trading session. Among them, BlackRock's IBIT recorded net outflows of $269.7 million. Since November 5, spot Bitcoin ETFs have seen cumulative net outflows of over $1.4 billion, indicating that investor demand for allocating to Bitcoin via ETFs remains weak recently.