Bitcoin price gains pull new investors into crypto, Fed experiment shows

Bitcoin price gains can draw new buyers into crypto by lifting expectations for future returns, a Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland experiment found.

According to the report, participants shown Bitcoin's previous 12-month performance became more bullish on crypto. They were about 2.5 percentage points more likely to own it in a later survey, researchers found. With roughly 11% of respondents owning crypto before the experiment, that change amounted to about a 23% increase in the likelihood of ownership.

The results offer rare experimental evidence for a dynamic long associated with speculative markets: past gains can influence what investors expect next and, in turn, where they put their money.

Researchers also found that the response was strongest among people with limited knowledge of crypto. That suggests rallies may have the greatest pull on potential investors who have yet to form strong views about the asset class.

The findings come from Do You Even Crypto, Bro? Cryptocurrencies in Household Finance, a July 2026 working paper by Michael Weber, Bernardo Candia, Olivier Coibion and Yuriy Gorodnichenko.

The Cleveland Fed classifies the study as a working paper, meaning the research is preliminary. The views expressed are those of the authors and do not represent the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland or the Federal Reserve System.