Bitcoin Q3 Strength Faces a Tougher Q4 Test

Bitcoin just delivered its second-best Q3 in history, while Ethereum posted its best Q3 ever. Sounds like the market is back. Maybe. But Q4 still has plenty to prove.

The problem is history isn’t exactly comforting. Bitcoin ended Q4 red in both 2024 and 2025. Ethereum also had a red Q4 in 2024, while its 2025 quarter was barely positive. So, no, a strong Q3 doesn’t guarantee another green quarter.

Bitcoin Q3 Rally Needs Fresh Liquidity Now

There is, however, an interesting liquidity signal emerging. RugaResearch said in a CryptoQuant post that USDT’s 60-day supply change closed September at +$505 million, its first reading above zero in more than three months.

On a monthly basis, USDT supply increased about $450 million. That’s positive, but don’t get carried away. The number remains small compared with the $5.7 billion hole seen earlier.

The 60-day reading bottomed at -$5.7 billion on July 13. Its 30-day average hit -$5.4 billion on July 29 before climbing every day since.

USDT Supply Is Recovering, But Slowly

However, there’s an important catch. Of the $541 million improvement during the final three days, only around $17 million came from new minting. Most of the increase came from early-August burns dropping out of the calculation. Still, the underlying trend has improved.