Price action also looks more like stagnation than a clear reversal. Bitcoin has set lower highs for months since a 2025 peak above $120,000. Even after rebounding from the area where it slipped below $60,000 in June, it has continued to move sideways rather than shift into a new trend.
Momentum indicators are also failing to send a strong signal. The daily relative strength index is around 49.6, staying in neutral territory. Buying pressure is not as weak as during the sharp June drop, but there is still no sign of momentum expansion strong enough to justify a breakout.
On-chain and valuation indicators also still tilt toward a cautious view. CryptoQuant’s indicator heat map classifies the Thermocap multiple, NVM ratio, profit and loss index, Bollinger percent, Pi cycle top and weekly RSI as still in bearish territory. The one-year realised net profit and loss and the apparent demand indicator also show a bearish environment persists.
Not all indicators consistently point to bearishness. The MVRV Z-score, NUPL, adjusted SOPR, the long-term and short-term holder SOPR ratio and the Mayer multiple were assessed as neutral. This suggests some easing in negative market conditions, but it is difficult to interpret a shift to neutral as immediate entry into a bullish phase.
For bitcoin to turn higher, a condition was presented that it must first reclaim the $66,000 to $67,000 range. The next step is a break above the 200-day moving average around $72,017, and it must hold that zone for the current bearish structure to improve.
Ultimately, for the market to build a long-term uptrend again, not only price but also momentum, demand and on-chain conditions must align. Analysts say bitcoin’s current stabilisation could be a starting point, but the conditions to declare a bull market are not yet sufficiently in place.
