Bitcoin recovers 44% from its June low as BTC’s 2021 pattern resurfaces

Bitcoin [BTC] is moving further from its June bottom, with the recovery now testing whether $58,535 can hold as a cycle low.

Since then, Bitcoin’s price has increased by 44.2% to around $84,400, a move greater than the average of historical recoveries from lows of 29.7%.

This increase may add strength to the current recovery, yet there is an additional potential drawback. The June drop was approximately 53.06%. Historically, drops of this magnitude have been followed by lower price levels.

In particular, 2021 saw a similar 53.10% drop, followed by another lower low.

However, BTC’s MVRV stood at 1.10 at the June bottom. This was less than the 1.55 seen in 2021. A significantly different cost basis potentially reduces pressure on Bitcoin to continue rising.

However, if the price falls below $58,535, it would represent a break into new territory and invalidate the assumption that $58,535 represents a low point.

Can Bitcoin hold the $58,535 floor?

The Bitcoin rally is setting a new course for the current cycle by breaking away from the collapse of 2021, but demand must continue absorbing supply.

More importantly, for now, institutional demand seems to be supporting buyers, with weekly ETF inflows reaching $2.39 billion and monthly flows exceeding $2.7 billion.