Bitcoin slips below $80,000 as gold retreats after Jackson Hole hawkish Fed message

Bitcoin and gold retreated on Friday after recent gains, with BTC slipping back below $80,000 following another push towards $81,500 and a rejection in the $81,000–$82,000 supply band for the second time in under two weeks. Technical indicators remained stretched: the RSI sat around 78 and the MACD stayed in positive territory, though it pointed to fading upside momentum. Key downside levels were flagged at the 200-day EMA near $72,069, then a secondary zone around the 50-day EMA at about $68,694 and the 100-day EMA near $68,360.

Gold also eased, with XAU/USD trading below $4,600 after a 3% drop from its August peak of $4,697. Price action centred around $4,580, with nearby support mapped to the 100-day EMA at $4,364, the 50-day EMA at $4,336 and the 200-day EMA at $4,315, while a deeper pullback was framed around $4,267. In policy remarks at the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium in Wyoming, Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh referenced elevated US inflation and kept the option of higher interest rates open without offering forward guidance.

Volatility Outlook and Seasonal Trends

Following Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s hawkish stance at Jackson Hole, we expect increased volatility and downward pressure on both Bitcoin and gold in the coming weeks. Historically, September is the weakest month of the year for risk assets, with Bitcoin averaging a 4.5% decline over the last ten years. Derivative traders should prepare for a defensive market environment as higher-for-longer interest rate fears bolster the US dollar.