Bitcoin Volatility Is Down But Expect A Move Soon: Fidelity

Bitcoin has been sitting still recently, and the coin’s volatility is now lower than 98.5% of all days in its 17-year history, according to asset manager Fidelity.

Writing on X, the firm’s digital asset arm said that spot trading volume was also at its lowest level since 2019. 

Bitcoin’s price is virtually unmoved over a 30-day period, with some analysts saying the bottom is likely in. The coin was recently trading for $65,329, nearly 50% lower than the all-time high it notched in October 2025. 

“Think of it like a coiled spring: The longer volatility remains compressed, the greater the potential for a meaningful move once it breaks,” Fidelity Digital Assets wrote. 

The asset manager pointed to a post from earlier this month, where it noted that while volatility was down, such “periods of compression don’t tend to last forever.”

Investment manager VanEck on Tuesday said that bitcoin’s thirty-day realized volatility had fallen to 27.2% annualized, down from 30.4% the prior month and less than half bitcoin’s long-run average of roughly 80%. 

It added that based on the length of prior cycles, the firm sees a bottom potentially forming anywhere between September and November of this year. 

Bitcoin’s wild price swings have dampened — and 2025 was the least volatile year for Bitcoin, according to a K33 Research report from December.