CLARITY Act odds fall to 16% as key Democrats resist GOP’s ‘final’ offer

Odds of the CLARITY Act becoming law this year on Polymarket fell sharply again on Monday after spiking the day before, as key Senate Democrats reportedly said they had not been swayed by Republicans’ “final” crypto bill proposal.  

Polymarket traders initially saw a newly revised Republican proposal with expanded ethics provisions as a positive sign, sending the odds to 35%. However, their confidence was dashed as reservations about the revised text began mounting, with the odds falling back as low as 16% on Monday. 

US Senator Mark Warner, one of the Democrats involved in negotiations, reportedly said the revised ethics provision was not “near enough,” while Democrats involved in negotiations began preparing a counterproposal on Monday. 

Republicans need 60 votes to advance the bill, and failure on Tuesday could stall legislation that would determine how the US Securities and Exchange Commission and Commodity Futures Trading Commission divide oversight of the US crypto market.

Key Democrats remain unconvinced by ethics offer

Punchbowl News’ Brendan Pedersen reported that Senator Raphael Warnock said Democrats should not advance legislation that fails to address opportunities for corruption that are occurring “in real time.”