Crypto Week Ahead

Crypto markets enter the week with the near-term direction tied to whether easing U.S. inflation can keep the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate policy on hold and take pressure off the dollar into year-end.

Consumer price index data due Wednesday is the first test, but the larger question is whether weaker labor demand is beginning to outweigh price pressures still above the central bank’s target.

ING strategists Chris Turner and Francesco Pesole say they expect a no-increase outcome to create a more supportive cross-asset backdrop.

“If we’re right on the Fed, the dollar should be due a benign decline into year-end in what should be a risk-positive climate,” they wrote in a report. A hotter CPI print would challenge that path and put Treasury yields and the dollar back at the center of crypto trading.

Geopolitical instability will keep on playing a role in crypto prices. As war in the Middle East threatens vital oil passageways, inflation expectations could increase and, along with them, interest-rate-hike expectations.

What to Watch

(All times ET)

• Crypto
  • Aug. 12: AI Financial Corporation says roughly 6.9 billion WLFI tokens covered by its original lock-up arrangements are expected to become fully transferable.
  • Aug. 14: Second-quarter Form 13F filing deadline for U.S. institutional investment managers.
• Macro
  • Aug. 11, 12:30 a.m.: Royal Bank of Australia interest rate decision est. 4.35% (Prev. 4.35%)
  • Aug. 11, 10:00 a.m.: U.S. existing home sales for July est. 4.07M (Prev. 4.09M)
  • Aug. 12, 08:30 a.m.: U.S. CPI YoY for July est. 3.4% (Prev. 3.5%); MoM est. 0.1% (Prev. -0.4%)
  • Aug. 13, 08:30 a.m.: U.S. PPI YoY for July (Prev. 5.5%); Core PPIMoM est. 0.1% (Prev. -0.3%)
  • Aug. 13, 08:30 a.m.: U.S. Initial Jobless Claims for period ending Aug. 8 est. 198K (Prev. 199K)
  • Aug. 13, 8:30 a.m.: U.S. Continuing Jobless Claims for period ending Aug. 1 (Prev. 1801K)
  • Aug. 14, 08:30 a.m.: U.S. Retail Sales MoM for July est. 0.2% (Prev. 0.2%)
  • Aug. 14, 10:00 a.m.: University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Prel for August (Prev. 54.4); 1-Yr Inflation Expectations (Prev. 4.2%)
  • Aug. 16, 07:50 p.m.: Japan GDP Growth Rate QoQ Prel for Q2 est. 0.5% (Prev. 0.5%)
• Earnings
  • Aug. 10: Trump Media & Technology Group (DJT), post-market
  • Aug. 10: Bitdeer Technology Solutions (BTDR), pre-market, -$0.33
  • Aug. 10: Bakkt (BKKT), post-market, $0.03
  • Aug. 10: Keel Infrastructure Corp. (KEEL), pre-market, $
  • Aug. 10: Sarplink (SBET), pre-market, $0.01
  • Aug. 10: Exodus Movement (EXOD), post-market, -$0.07
  • Aug. 11: CoreWeave (CRWV), post-market, -$1.17
  • Aug. 11: Etoro Group (ETOR), pre-market, $0.6
  • Aug. 12: Twenty One Capital (XXI)
  • Aug. 12: Securitize (SECZ), post-market
  • Aug. 13: Gemini Space Station (GEMI), post-market, -$0.68