Despite Bitcoin’s Recent Gains, One Analyst Remains Cautious: “I Haven’t Seen What I’m Looking For Yet”

While Bitcoin’s recent recovery in the cryptocurrency market has rekindled bullish expectations, Alphractal founder Joao Wedson stated that on-chain data presents a more cautious picture. According to Wedson, the ultimate price bottom of the cycle for Bitcoin may not yet have been reached, and if certain historical indicators are repeating themselves, the BTC price could fall to $53,000 or even lower.

In his analysis, Wedson specifically highlighted the MVRV Z-Score indicator, which is used to measure investor behavior and the realized value of the market. The analyst stated that on-chain metrics reflect investor behavior, arguing that this behavior is directly linked to periods of euphoria and fear in market cycles.

Wedson Pointed Out the 2018 Bitcoin Crash

Wedson compared the current market structure to the 2017-2018 cycle. According to the analyst, the MVRV Z-Score formed three significant peaks during the 2017 bull market before Bitcoin reached its all-time high.

Wedson noted that after Bitcoin peaked and then declined, the indicator formed a base between approximately 0.25 and 1.16, adding that at the time, a large portion of the market did not expect a new and sharp drop. However, Bitcoin experienced another sharp decline in November 2018, falling to around $3,180.