Expert sets crucial condition that will confirm Bitcoin’s bull market

Bitcoin (BTC) is approaching a decisive technical level that could determine whether its latest recovery develops into a confirmed bull market or faces another significant correction.

Notably, the flagship cryptocurrency rebounded strongly on September 19, climbing back above $80,000 as renewed demand for spot Bitcoin ETFs, a wave of short liquidations, and improving regulatory sentiment fueled buying pressure.

According to TradingShot analysis shared in a TradingView post on September 18, Bitcoin is testing a critical resistance zone formed by its 1-day 20-period moving average and the 50-week moving average (MA), a level the analyst described as the key barrier between a bear phase and a new bull cycle.

The analyst noted that Bitcoin’s current setup resembles the conditions that preceded sharp declines in January and May 2026. 

In both instances, rounded-top formations broke lower, triggering aggressive selloffs. Similar warning signs are emerging again, with the 1-day MACD remaining under pressure after a bearish crossover and the CCI rebounding after briefly falling below -100. 

Bitcoin has also failed to reclaim its 50-week moving average despite testing it for three consecutive weeks.