Fed Study Finds Bitcoin Gains Can Trigger More Crypto Buying Among U.S. Households

A Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland working paper noted, on July 14, 2026, that Bitcoin’s history acts as a guide for how much cryptocurrency Americans want to hold or buy.

Economists Michael Weber, Bernardo Candia, Olivier Coibion and Yuriy Gorodnichenko analyzed multiple cross-sections of household-survey data in the U.S., with a randomized information experiment in the second quarter of 2025, and an interview sample size per wave of 15,000 to 25,000.

Households who were exposed to the trailing 12-month Bitcoin return increased their target cryptocurrency allocation by two percentage points — approximately a 47% increase over the control group’s mean target allocation of 4.3%. Households exposed to the trailing Bitcoin return were more likely to purchase cryptocurrency in a later wave of the survey by a margin of 2.5 percentage points.

In 2021, the average return expected one year later from owners was 22%, and was lower for nonowners at 7%, but in 2025 these rates retreated somewhat from 22% and 7%, respectively. Owners sought 13.8%; nonowners expected 4.7%.

Expected returns were also correlated with ownership, as each percentage point increase in expected return corresponded to an increase of 0.8 percentage points in the probability of holding cryptocurrency. The randomized experiment lends support to causation.