Gold and BTC 'React Differently' to Inflation, Schiff Says: So Why Is Their Correlation Rising?

The shift suggests Bitcoin is once again being priced as a scarce, non-sovereign asset rather than purely as a high-beta tech trade.

Spot ETFs may be reinforcing that connection, since they let institutions hold Bitcoin and gold inside similar portfolio frameworks. 

XWIN Japan added an important caveat in its market analysis: a positive correlation isn’t automatically bullish, since both assets can rise or fall together in either direction. 

Confirming Bitcoin as a genuine safe haven would require sustained demand and similar responses to real yields, the dollar, and inflation data across multiple timeframes, not just a short-term correlation bounce.

What The Long-Term Numbers Show?

Macro analyst Lawrence McDonald posted a direct comparison on X. 

McDonald added an important caveat to his own data: five-year track records are close to meaningless for an asset class that drops 70% to 80% every few years, since drawdowns that large knock most investors out of their positions long before any recovery plays out.

What Van de Poppe Is Watching?

Analyst Michaël van de Poppe told X followers Monday that Bitcoin’s recent drop was likely a liquidity grab from leveraged longs rather than a structural breakdown. 

He also pushed back on the diminishing returns narrative, arguing that gold just saw its largest breakout in history and Bitcoin is about to follow. 

“I generally believe we’ll run to $500,000+,” van de Poppe wrote.

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