It's the Start of Uptober. Will Bitcoin Live Up to It?

In brief

• Bitcoin trades at $83,823 on the daily chart. Technical indicators suggest a strong uptrend, but BTC’s price remains stuck below $84,433.
• Myriad traders put 48% odds on a $90,000 Bitcoin high in October and 7% on a new all-time high before 2027.
• The Fed hiked rates to 3.75%-4% on Sept. 16 and the 10-year yield hit 5.289%, while spot ETFs logged $148.69 million in outflows on Sept. 30.

It’s the start of October, otherwise known as “Uptober” in crypto circles for its historically stellar market performance, marking the end of “Red September”—which turned out not to be so red after all. So how will Bitcoin fare?

Bitcoin is starting October at $83,823, up 0.28% on the day, after a September that was on pace to be its best on record—until the last moment.

Bitcoin was up 7.33% for the month, with one trading day left, edging past 2024's 7.29% record for September. In the end, a correction made the coin close the month with a 6.33% gain; still green, still defying the Red September curse, but not a historical performance anymore.

Now comes the month crypto calls Uptober. October has returned 19.92% on average for crypto investors and 14.71% at the median since 2013, per CoinGlass.

Last year broke the script. October 2025 closed down 3.69%, only the third red October since 2013. So how will things turn out this year? The macro picture provides some context.