ITS launches prediction market on Bitcoin, SpaceX and central bank rates

Kazakhstan now has a prediction market.

International Trading System, or ITS, has launched a new type of exchange-traded contract that allows investors to take positions on whether specific future events will occur, DKNews.kz reports.

The first contracts cover Bitcoin, SpaceX, the National Bank of Kazakhstan’s base rate, and the U.S. Federal Reserve’s policy rate.

Trading began on September 8, 2026, during the ITS Ideas 2026 conference held as part of Astana Finance Days. The product has been launched under the AFSA FinTech Lab, a special regulatory framework for testing new financial instruments.

Contract prices reflect the market’s view of probability

The key difference from conventional trading is what investors are actually pricing.

Instead of taking a position only on whether an asset will rise or fall, participants can trade the probability of a specific outcome.

For example, an investor can take a position on whether the National Bank of Kazakhstan’s base rate will exceed 16.75%, or whether the upper bound of the U.S. federal funds target range will be above a predetermined level.

Each event option has two possible outcomes: the condition is either met or it is not.

Before settlement, the contract trades freely at a price ranging from $0.01 to $0.99, determined by supply and demand.