At $97.33, Strategy (NASDAQ:MSTR | MSTR Price Prediction) screens attractively for long-term Bitcoin bulls who prefer dollar-cost averaging over a lump sum. The stock has shed roughly three quarters of its value over the past year alongside a steep Bitcoin drawdown, and the debate is whether the leveraged proxy still works when the underlying asset is deep underwater.
Strategy, formerly MicroStrategy, is the largest corporate Bitcoin holder in the world, sitting on 846,000 BTC as of Q2 2026. A legacy business analytics unit generates revenue, but the equity trades as a capital-markets machine wrapped around a Bitcoin treasury. CEO Phong Le uses ATM equity offerings, preferred stock, and convertibles to compound Bitcoin Per Share.
Why the Leveraged Bitcoin Proxy Still Works
The bull thesis is mechanical. Every time Strategy issues stock or preferreds above modified NAV and buys Bitcoin, existing holders gain BTC exposure per share. Management delivered 4.5% BTC Yield year-to-date and grew Bitcoin Per Share 5% in Q2 during a bear market. In 2025, Strategy raised $25.3 billion, ranking as the largest U.S. equity issuer for a second straight year.
Valuation looks stretched only if you ignore the treasury. Wall Street carries 14 Buy ratings against a single Hold with a $232.50 target, implying 138.88% upside. Subscription software revenue also grew 54% year over year to $62.86 million, a small but real cash engine underneath the crypto exposure.
Why the Capital-Markets Machine Could Break
The bear case starts with accounting. Strategy booked an $8.32 billion unrealized loss on Bitcoin in Q2 and a $14.46 billion loss in Q1, producing EPS of -$24.45 and -$38.25. The $49.7 billion carrying value against a $63.9 billion cost basis means the aggregate position is underwater.
