New Capital Inflows Slow, Can Bitcoin Break Above Gold Support Through Hedging?

Bitcoin’s realized market cap trend reversal and consecutive ETF outflows jointly point to a slowdown in new capital inflows and weak demand. However, the resilience of prices near key support levels, the dynamic adjustment of on-chain cost structure, and JPMorgan’s analysis that the unwinding of hedging positions may bring potential support provide the market with multi-dimensional observational perspectives. The real verification signal lies in whether ETF demand can remain stable while investors’ defensive positions continue to decrease, rather than judging based solely on a single-day price rebound or total fund flow figures.

Data shows that as of September 14, Bitcoin’s realized market cap had maintained an increase for 27 consecutive days, but on September 15 it recorded negative growth for the first time. This indicator calculates the total on-chain valuation based on bitcoins that have recently been traded, reflecting changes in the capital status of holders when transferring assets at different prices. Bitcoin is currently trading at around $76,500. This turning point means that the on-chain valuation corresponding to recent transactions has declined, which is not equivalent to an equal amount of capital withdrawal, but rather reveals the dynamic adjustment of the holding cost structure.