Optimism creeps back into crypto, with the 2022 test still to come

Cryptocurrencies rallied after the Federal Reserve delivered its first interest-rate increase since July 2023, a counterintuitive reaction given the FOMC decision makes interest-bearing investments more attractive.

Bitcoin

BTC$76,330.19

added almost 1% over the past 24 hours while zcash (ZEC) jumped by more than 23% to a record high.

Traders who remember previous Fed rate cycles, especially 2022, are likely to be cautious, however.

Bitcoin is currently about 40% below its October record high of $126,000. When the Fed began tightening in March 2022, it was also roughly 40% below its record high, the November 2021 peak.

Over the next 12 days, the largest cryptocurrency rallied 18% before sliding 50% for several months, a period that also saw the collapse of crypto exchange FTX.

The relief leg of that pattern has already begun, with bitcoin defying a shift to the downside after the U.S. Clarity Act was shelved, but ETF flows continue to demonstrate weakness, with $746 million exiting spot bitcoin funds on Tuesday and Wednesday alone.