Waiting for a 30% Bitcoin Dip Backfired in 61% of Tested Cases

Why a Bitcoin Crash Still Led to a Higher Purchase Price

A bitcoin buyer could wait for a 30% crash and still pay more than at the price they first rejected. That was the result in 61% of the cases Adam Livingston, vice president of investments at Strive Inc. (Nasdaq: ASST), a bitcoin treasury company, examined. In a Sept. 27 post on X, he shared his analysis of bitcoin dip buying. His test starts at each of 216 new 52-week closing highs from January 2017 through October 2025, then models waiting for a pullback before buying.

The distinction is where the decline begins. Bitcoin can climb well beyond an earlier high before falling 30% from a later peak. In Livingston’s test, that drop took 134 days at the midpoint of the waiting times to arrive and up to 881 days. The pullback occurred, but its eventual purchase price was often above the original opportunity.

Livingston illustrated the result with an August 2020 starting price of $12,300. Under his 30% pullback rule, the modeled purchase came at $43,580, about 254% higher. The example captures his central point: the size of a fall from a later peak does not establish whether bitcoin has returned to an earlier price.

Even Smaller Bitcoin Dips Often Failed to Beat the Earlier Price