When Will Bitcoin Hit $100k Again? Kalshi Bettors Say Not Soon

When will Bitcoin hit $100K again is what many investors are asking right now. Bitcoin is trading today for around $62,800, about half of its all-time high of approximately $126,200 reached in October 2025.

For a cryptocurrency that approached six figures less than a year ago, the path back to $100,000 now appears significantly longer than many bullish traders anticipated. This sentiment is reflected in the trading activity at Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated prediction market.

In Kalshi's market for "When will Bitcoin cross $100,000 again?" the likelihood of this happening before November 2026 is currently priced at just 5%, rising modestly to 13% by January 2027.

This implies an overwhelming 87% chance that Bitcoin will still be trading below $100,000 when the new year arrives, a worrying statistic for BTC bulls.

When Will Bitcoin Hit $100K Again? Not this Year is What Kalshi Bettors are Saying

(SOURCE: Kalshi)

This is a stark change from earlier in the year. In May, Kalshi traders had assigned a 40% probability to a potential year-end surge to $100,000. By late June, sentiment had further deteriorated, with separate contracts indicating a 69% chance that Bitcoin would revisit $50,000 before seeing $100,000 again.