Will the Fed Raise Rates on September 16? Polymarket Now Says 83%. Here's What It Means for XRP and Bitcoin

Polymarket odds on a September Fed hike have nearly tripled in three weeks, and the 10-year Treasury is already moving like the decision is done. What that tightening path does to XRP and Bitcoin on meeting day depends entirely on…

Traders on Polymarket price a 25 basis point hike at the September 15 to 16 FOMC meeting at 83%, with a hold at 18%, up from about 30% before Jackson Hole and about 50% before the August CPI release on September 11, 2026. Bitcoin (CRYPTO:BTC) trades at $77,293.66, and XRP (CRYPTO:XRP) trades at $1.37 as of September 12, 2026.

A hike on September 16 would be the first since 2023, and Bitcoin has never tracked interest rates as closely as it does now. So a Fed move reaches crypto faster this week than it would have in any earlier cycle. How would a September 16 hike reach XRP and Bitcoin?

Hike Odds Went From 30% to 83% in Three Weeks

Polymarket priced the September hike at roughly 30% before the Jackson Hole symposium, about 50% before the August CPI release, and 83% after it. The third step is the biggest.

Core CPI, which is the consumer price index with food and energy stripped out because those two swing hardest month to month, rose 0.3% in August 2026 against 0.2% expected, while the headline figure matched estimates. A hotter core print tells the Fed underlying price pressure hasn’t cooled, so it undercuts the argument for standing still through the rest of the year.