[Analysis] Bitcoin Bear Market Hard to Call on U.S., Japan Rate Hikes Alone

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Recent rate hikes in the United States and Japan have revived debate over Bitcoin's outlook, but those moves alone are not enough to call a bear market for the cryptocurrency, digital-asset analyst Murphy said.

Writing on X, formerly Twitter, on September 18, Murphy said past cases show that rate hikes alone do not adequately explain Bitcoin's price trajectory. The two variables that matter most, he wrote, are the pace of monetary tightening and Bitcoin's own market conditions.

He pointed to 2022 and 2023 as representative examples. In 2022, the Federal Reserve delivered a cumulative 425 basis points of rate increases, including four consecutive 75-basis-point "giant step" hikes from June through November. Over that period, Bitcoin fell from about $41,000 at the time of the first rate increase to a yearly low of $15,800.