[Analysis] Bitcoin Nears Bull-Market Threshold as Futures Leverage Fuels Gains

Forecast Trend Report by Period

Bitcoin (BTC) has climbed to the cusp of a bull market, but its recent gains appear to be driven more by rising leverage in the futures market than by spot demand.

Over the past 24 hours, Bitcoin rose 3.9%, while futures open interest increased by 11,200 BTC, or about 3.4%. On a six-hour basis, the gain in open interest at one point reached 15,200 BTC.

The simultaneous increase in price and open interest suggests the move was driven by fresh futures leverage rather than short covering, Adler wrote. Long positions were built during 15 of the past 24 hours.

Further gains could tip Bitcoin into a bull-market phase, he added. Confirmation would come if the daily close moves above the model's threshold for a bullish reversal.

Still, because the rally has relied on futures leverage, Bitcoin could face a pullback if that leverage unwinds quickly.