Analyst Sees 75% Chance Crypto Cycle Has Turned as Bitcoin Pulls Back

Key Takeaways

• The previous three bitcoin bear markets fell about 82% on average.
• Bitcoin’s June low came after a shorter, shallower decline than past bear markets.
• A renewed drop remains possible despite the recovery.

Why the Analyst Thinks the Crypto Cycle Has Turned

Crypto investors may have seen the worst of the current downturn, according to a Sept. 28 report by investment bank Keefe, Bruyette & Woods analyst Stephen Glagola. He assigns a 75% probability to a turn in the digital asset cycle, using bitcoin as a proxy for the wider market. The assessment accompanied the firm’s resumption of coverage of crypto exchange Coinbase (Nasdaq: COIN).

Bitcoin fell 53% from its October 2025 peak to a June 30 closing low, the report estimates. That low arrived about 8.8 months after the peak, compared with an average of roughly 12 months for the previous three bear markets. Those earlier declines averaged about 82% from peak to trough. Glagola wrote:

“We assign a 75% probability to the turn.”

The figure expresses his assessment of the cycle, not a forecast of bitcoin’s next price.

The comparison rests on an observed pattern in which bitcoin’s major advances have been followed by prolonged declines. Those past bitcoin market cycles offer a reference point, though their timing and depth have varied. Glagola notes that earlier bear markets included rallies exceeding 30% that later failed, leaving room for another reversal in the current recovery. He also found that onchain indicators have yet to show the deep capitulation seen near previous bottoms.