Bitcoin Accumulation Could Begin by November as VanEck Flags Eight Capitulation Signals

If this cycle is similar to prior bear cycles, Bitcoin may be in an accumulation phase from September to November, said asset manager VanEck. Eight of the 12 capitulation indicators the firm tracks were still active as of August 12, marking 10 months since Bitcoin peaked in October 2025.

However, VanEck explained that past returns should not be used to forecast prices and noted that their figure for Bitcoin exposure found forward returns from overlapping sets of relatively few observations.

Most indicators in its capitulation framework declare sell conditions when their values reach a very high historical percentile, and price drawdowns are declared upon a drop of at least 35% from a Bitcoin price local maximum. Around the time of this analysis, BTC▲$62,630.00 was around 49% below its overall October all-time high, although this was only the 35th percentile historically.

The same threshold in percentiles would lead to seven signals. VanEck kept the drawdown rule separate, with institutional ownership and demand making the drawdown for ETPs holding spot Bitcoin likely shallower than bear cycles in prior years, which were 78% to 94% losses.

However, 8-12 such capitulation signals in the past return 12.8% on average over the next 90 days versus 15.2% for all periods combined. Subsequently, the average amount over the past 180 days was 32%, below the baseline of 36.3%.