Bitcoin could climb to $300,000 by 2029, Bernstein analyst says

Bitcoin (COIN:BTCUSD) could reach $300,000 by the end of 2029 as mounting sovereign debt and the prospect of currency debasement increase the appeal of scarce assets, according to Bernstein analyst Gautam Chhugani.

The forecast assumes Bitcoin broadly maintains the four-year market cycle that has characterised its historical price movements. Before reaching the projected 2029 peak, Bernstein expects the cryptocurrency to recover to a fresh record of $150,000 by mid-2027.

"Following our price-to-marginal cost framework, we would expect the next market peak to be $300K by CY2029E and the market recovering to new all-time high of $150,000 by mid-2027E," Chhugani wrote in a note to clients.

Higher borrowing costs shape Bernstein's Bitcoin outlook

A central part of Bernstein's argument is that the prolonged period of falling interest rates that characterised the previous 40 years has ended.

With sovereign debt already at unprecedented levels, governments now face the prospect of substantially higher debt-servicing costs. Bernstein believes rising yields can create a feedback loop in which larger interest expenses widen budget deficits, leading governments to issue additional debt.

"Faced with the choice between fiscal stress and currency debasement, we believe the policymakers will ultimately favor the latter, as it is politically less disruptive," the firm said.