Bitcoin Faces September Fed Rate Hike Clouds After August's 25% Surge

Bitcoin (BTC) delivered a stellar gain of roughly 25% in August, marking its first positive August since 2021, but that bullish momentum now faces a severe test in September as Federal Reserve rate hike expectations have intensified sharply. Market participants note that Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's hawkish signals at the Jackson Hole symposium have pushed the probability of a September rate hike to nearly 70%, while the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield briefly touched 4.798%. Whether the "dollar debasement trade" logic that underpinned Bitcoin's August surge can persist has become the focal point of an intense tug-of-war between bulls and bears.

As of September 1, Bitcoin's price has pulled back to around $77,000, a notable cooldown from the swing high set in August. According to market data, Bitcoin's August gain ranks third in historical performance, trailing only 2017's 65.6% and 2013's 30.7%. However, historical statistics also show that September has consistently been one of Bitcoin's weakest months, with long-term average returns hovering between -3% and -4%, and an average decline of approximately 2.2% since 2014—making the bull camp particularly cautious heading into September.

The Real Engine Behind August's Rally