Bitcoin heads for a rare September gain despite rising bond yields

Bitcoin is up about 7% in September after gaining 25% in August. Since 2013, every previous positive August has been followed by a negative September. With two calendar days remaining, a positive close would break that pattern and give bitcoin three consecutive monthly gains, from July through September. It would also leave the third quarter up more than 40%, its first positive quarter since Q3 2025.

The fourth quarter has historically been bitcoin’s strongest, with CoinGlass data putting its average gain at roughly 77%. Bitcoin is trading at $84,000, but the macro backdrop is volatile. Bond yields are rising globally, the U.S. 10-year yield is above 5.2%, and the MOVE index, a measure of bond market volatility, is above 100, approaching year to date highs. Oil prices holding above $90 a barrel add to inflation concerns, while gold fell about 3% on Monday to just above $4,000 an ounce.

Q4 brings two further tests for liquidity and risk appetite. Anthropic’s reported plans for a November IPO could draw investor attention and capital toward a major new equity listing, although the offering’s timing and size have not been finalized. The U.S. midterm elections in November could also add further volatility as investors assess the policy outlook.