Bitcoin Hits $1M By 2033 Under Bernstein's Base And Bull Cases

Bernstein expects Bitcoin (BTC) to peak near $300,000 in 2029 and reach roughly $1 million by the end of 2033, citing government debt.

Key Points:

• Bernstein's base case has Bitcoin back near $125,000 by the end of 2026 and setting a record around $150,000 by mid-2027.
• A faster bull case points to a $500,000 peak in 2029, while the $1 million call for 2033 holds in both versions.
• The firm cut its price target on Strategy to $350 from $450 while keeping an Outperform rating.

Gautam Chhugani Sets Bitcoin Cycle Peak At $300,000

Analyst Gautam Chhugani and his team laid out the forecast in a note to clients on Wednesday, calling Bitcoin the clearest beneficiary of what they describe as a debasement trade.

The base case has the cryptocurrency climbing back to about $125,000 by the end of 2026, then setting a record near $150,000 by mid-2027. From there the model places the next cycle peak at roughly $300,000, two years after that record and four years after the last one.

The framework values Bitcoin as a multiple of the marginal cost of mining a coin, and it assumes the asset keeps repeating the four-year cycle tied to its halving schedule. Bernstein splits each cycle into four phases, from breakout through hype, drawdown and accumulation.