Bitcoin’s ETF-Led Rally Faces Jackson Hole Test After 20% Surge

Key Takeaways

Even as Bitcoin (BTC) consolidates between $80,000 levels to $81,250 resistance zone after briefly breaking above $81,000, analysts say ETF demand, lower yields, a weaker dollar and short covering helped drive the latest rally.

The next test is whether institutional inflows persist and whether Fed Chair Kevin Warsh avoids a hawkish message at Jackson Hole.

Bitcoin’s sharp rebound is being driven by more than leverage, analysts said, with regulated ETF inflows and macro relief supporting the move even as stretched positioning leaves the market exposed to profit-taking around the $80,000 to $85,000 zone.

Bitcoin is currently trading near $78,700, down 0.6% over 24 hours, after briefly pushing above $81,000.

Bitcoin Rally Pauses Near Resistance

The latest pullback follows one of Bitcoin’s strongest weekly moves of the year. U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs drew about $1.9 billion in net inflows last week, while spot ether ETFs attracted $697.2 million, according to SoSoValue data. The combined $2.6 billion inflow marked the strongest week for the two categories since October 2025.

The macro backdrop also helped. The U.S. Treasury said it would at least double liquidity support buybacks for longer-dated nominal coupon securities in the 10-to-20-year and 20-to-30-year sectors, raising the operation size from $2 billion to at least $4 billion beginning Sept. 9.