Bitcoin’s gold correlation hits 50% – Can BTC hold its safe-haven edge?

The safe-haven narrative is back in the spotlight.

The obvious question is whether Bitcoin can eventually be integrated into this narrative. The setup looks interesting (new tensions between the U.S. and Iran) as oil prices regain $90/barrel and the market prices in a 60% probability of a rate hike at the upcoming FOMC. In other words, the safe-haven flows are back on the scene, creating just another macro headwind for risk assets.

As observed in the chart below, the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield jumped to 4.79% on the 1st of September, reaching a level not seen since January 2025. This implies that rising rate expectations and tighter financial conditions, and could further pressure risk assets as investors rotate into safer, yield-generating assets.

Naturally, this poses a critical juncture for Bitcoin [BTC].

To make matters more complicated, the Federal Reserve is set to purchase $12.5 billion in the U.S. Treasury debt. While this action differs from quantitative easing, it should inject some liquidity into the market and ease the financial conditions by a margin.

Therefore, a conflicting setup emerges for Bitcoin as the rising yields pose a tightening of liquidity, whereas the Fed’s Treasury purchase could offer some liquidity support.