Bitcoin's Next Move: Bullish Bets Run Up Against a Historical Wall

In brief

• Bitcoin gained nearly 25% in August, its best August since 2017, closing the month back above its 50-month moving average for the first time since last year's crypto winter began.
• On Myriad Markets, traders are pricing a 77% chance BTC hits $84,000 before it dumps to $55,000.
• September is Bitcoin's historically weakest month, and the daily chart shows price already stalling under a resistance wall that's held since late August.

Bitcoin is trading around $77,500 on the first day of September, down about 1.3% on the day after closing out one of its strongest months of the cycle.

The historic rally that moved crypto markets from “fear” to “extreme greed” in record time appears now to have cooled—so where does the price of Bitcoin go next?

For context, the recent rally traces back to Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's decision to double the size of long-end bond buybacks on August 19, a liquidity move that hammered Treasury yields and touched off a short squeeze in crypto. Around that time, the Securities and Exchange Commission offered a framework for crypto investment contracts, adding regulatory tailwind to the move.

The rally cooled after Fed Chair Kevin Warsh used his first Jackson Hole address as chairman to warn that inflation numbers "are more concerning" than the labor market, reviving talk of a rate hike at the Fed's September 15-16 meeting. Bitcoin briefly topped $81,000 in the days after the buyback news before slipping back under $78,000, closing out August with a monthly gain of roughly 25%, up from a 21-month low near $59,300 hit back in June.