Bitcoin Short-Term Holders Put 75% of Supply in Profit as Exchange Inflows Raise Sell Pressure

Forecast Trend Report by Period

Bitcoin has surged 22% over the past eight days, pushing short-term holders quickly back into profit. Their Bitcoin inflows to exchanges have also climbed sharply, a sign that near-term selling pressure may be building.

On August 24, on-chain analyst Axel Adler Jr. wrote in a newsletter that the share of short-term holder supply in profit jumped to 74.9% from 26.1% as Bitcoin rose from $63,000 to $77,000. That means about three-quarters of the Bitcoin held by short-term investors is now trading above its average purchase price.

As more of that supply returned to profit, more Bitcoin was also sent to exchanges. A metric tracking exchange inflows from short-term holders turned to positive 28,600 BTC on August 24 from negative 18,700 BTC on August 16 and negative 11,900 BTC on August 17.

"Most short-term holders have moved back into profit, while the amount being sent to exchanges is also increasing," Adler wrote. "That suggests potential selling pressure from short-term holders is building."

He said the risk of short-term overheating could rise if the exchange inflow metric stays above 25,000 BTC, the share of supply in profit approaches 90%, and Bitcoin's rally loses momentum.

By contrast, if prices hold steady and exchange inflows move back toward zero, selling pressure could ease and a more stable consolidation phase may emerge, he added.