Bitcoin Stuck Around $63,000 but Volatility Is Coming, Analyst Warns

Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) remains around $63,000, but diminishing volatility and fading social interest may be the precursors of a final bear market bottom, according to a prominent analyst.

Will BTC’s Narrow Range Break?

Crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen on Sunday pointed out that Bitcoin is being squeezed between its 200-week moving average and the bear market resistance band, creating a narrowing range that will eventually force a larger move.

His base case remains bearish in the near term.

Cowen expects Bitcoin could break lower before the cycle bottoms, potentially alongside a stock-market correction later in September.

"Normally, Bitcoin shows weakness before stocks do," he said.

The analyst highlighted historically low volatility as one reason traders should not become complacent.

Bitcoin’s 60-day volatility has fallen to roughly 1.47%, while 30-day volatility sits near 1.16%, levels Cowen said rarely persist for long.

His expectation is that volatility expands sharply as summer ends.

Patterns Don’t Guarantee Sell-Off

Cowen sees similarities between Bitcoin’s 2026 structure and the 2018 bear market.

Both featured a February low, a lower high in May and another downside move during the summer. Social interest continued deteriorating like currently it is at levels last seen around the same point in the 2018 cycle.