Bitcoin Stuck in Five-Week Range With U.S. CPI Seen as Next Key Catalyst

Forecast Trend Report by Period

Bitcoin has been stuck in a tight range for five weeks, with this week's U.S. consumer price index report emerging as the key variable for its next move.

CoinDesk reported on August 11 that Bitcoin traded at about $63,500, down 0.6% from 24 hours earlier. The cryptocurrency has remained pinned between $62,000 and $66,000 throughout the summer.

Paul Howard, senior director at trading firm Wincent, said recent Bitcoin price action reflects a market in which steady ETF inflows are being offset by over-the-counter selling from miners and Strategy (MSTR). He added that crypto trading volumes have fallen to their lowest level in three years, preventing a decisive breakout in either direction.

Bitfinex analysts described the same pattern. ETFs and companies that hold Bitcoin as a treasury asset remain the two main pillars of price-insensitive demand, but selling tied to recent corporate treasury activity has offset that support. That helps explain why Bitcoin rose only about 2% last week even as ETF inflows were strong and broader risk assets performed well.

Jeff Anderson, managing partner at STS Digital, said both buyers and sellers lack conviction amid extremely thin summer liquidity. Implied volatility has dropped sharply as investors wait for clarity on monetary policy and the outcome of the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act. He added that a break above or below the current range could trigger a sharp move.