The leading crypto asset by market cap, bitcoin ($BTC), reached climbed over the $126,000 mark in early October before entering a prolonged decline. By August, it was trading mostly between $63,000 and $65,400, leaving buyers near the peak with heavy losses but producing a bear market that remains unusually shallow by bitcoin’s historical standards.
Previous major downturns have routinely erased more than 75% to 80% of bitcoin’s value from the all-time high (ATH). To many veterans, this bear market still feels like a nothingburger.
War and Oil Fail to Crack Bitcoin
Few assets have had an easy macroeconomic backdrop in 2026. Fighting between the United States and Iran intensified beginning in late February, while attacks involving shipping around the Strait of Hormuz repeatedly rattled energy markets. Oil spikes revived inflation fears and raised the possibility that central banks could keep monetary policy tighter for longer.
Bitcoin reacted, but rarely with the panic that characterized earlier cycles. Geopolitical headlines have triggered bouts of selling, yet declines have generally stabilized instead of turning into uncontrolled liquidation cascades. That matters because it suggests a market increasingly capable of absorbing shocks without every bearish headline becoming a crisis.
Strategy Turns From Buyer to Seller
Another major psychological blow came from Strategy. Michael Saylor’s company spent years building its identity around relentless bitcoin accumulation, making its balance sheet one of the market’s most visible sources of corporate demand.
That changed in 2026. Strategy began selectively selling bitcoin to strengthen cash reserves and support preferred-share obligations and repurchases. The company sold another 1,690 $BTC this past week at an average price of $64,262, reducing its holdings to roughly 840,447 $BTC.
Institutional demand also weakened. U.S. spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) endured an extended stretch of redemptions, including eight consecutive weeks with more than $8 billion in outflows. Yet by the end of last week’s trading session, approximately $853 million flowed back into the products, offering an early sign that institutional selling pressure may be easing.




