Bitcoin Whale Selling Ends as Rate-Hike Bets Fade

Bitcoin is climbing back from its 2026 lows as softer U.S. jobs data cools expectations for more Federal Reserve rate hikes, according to James Butterfill, CoinShares’ head of research.

Key Takeaways:

• Bitcoin whales flipped from selling to buying after offloading $40 billion since October 2025.
• Crypto funds logged a fifth straight week of inflows, pulling in $1.05 billion.
• The CLARITY Act’s odds of passing this year dropped to just 14% on Polymarket.

Markets have trimmed the odds of additional rate hikes since July 29, a shift Butterfill tied to hopes for an Iran resolution and slightly softer economic data at the time. A weaker-than-expected July jobs report, released the same day as the CoinShares update, added to that case and pushed bitcoin prices up intraday.

Oil remains the swing factor. Easing tensions would ease pressure on energy costs and inflation, while renewed fighting could reverse that support quickly.

Two forces that pressured bitcoin for months are turning. Bitcoin’s largest holders have stopped selling, and investors are putting money back into crypto funds after a record stretch of withdrawals, Butterfill wrote, a pattern that has historically marked the end of a price cycle’s low point.