Bitcoin is climbing back from its 2026 lows as softer U.S. jobs data cools expectations for more Federal Reserve rate hikes, according to James Butterfill, CoinShares’ head of research.
Key Takeaways:
- Bitcoin whales flipped from selling to buying after offloading $40 billion since October 2025.
- Crypto funds logged a fifth straight week of inflows, pulling in $1.05 billion.
- The CLARITY Act’s odds of passing this year dropped to just 14% on Polymarket.
Markets have trimmed the odds of additional rate hikes since July 29, a shift Butterfill tied to hopes for an Iran resolution and slightly softer economic data at the time. A weaker-than-expected July jobs report, released the same day as the CoinShares update, added to that case and pushed bitcoin prices up intraday.
Oil remains the swing factor. Easing tensions would ease pressure on energy costs and inflation, while renewed fighting could reverse that support quickly.
Two forces that pressured bitcoin for months are turning. Bitcoin’s largest holders have stopped selling, and investors are putting money back into crypto funds after a record stretch of withdrawals, Butterfill wrote, a pattern that has historically marked the end of a price cycle’s low point.
Bitcoin whales sold about $40 billion worth of the cryptocurrency since October 2025, one of the largest waves of supply in the current cycle, Butterfill wrote. The selling has since given way to three straight weeks of accumulation, a pattern that has shown up at similar points in past four-year cycles.
Fund flows tell a similar story. Digital asset investment products pulled in $1.05 billion in the week ended August 7, according to the report. That marks a fifth straight week of inflows, following an eight-week stretch in which investors withdrew a record $8 billion.
Bitcoin Rally Still Needs Lower Rates
Bitcoin’s cycle lows are probably behind it, Butterfill wrote. That doesn’t mean a rally is imminent, though. Prices are more likely to trade in a range over the next two to three months, testing $80,000 without breaking convincingly higher. A move toward $100,000 would need clearer weakness in employment data and a bigger pullback in rate expectations.
For investors looking to track that move directly, the BRRR ) offers spot exposure. The fund carries a 0.25% expense ratio and held $370.1 million in assets under management as of August 10, according to ETF Database. BRRR launched January 10, 2024.
See more: Crypto ETFs: A More Selective Market Emerges
Neither a sharper slowdown in hiring nor a clear shift toward lower rates looks imminent, Butterfill wrote. The Iran conflict remains unresolved and the Fed has shown little sign of shifting to easier policy. This month’s Jackson Hole symposium should offer more clarity on rates, though he does not expect a dovish tone.
