CFTC Sends White House New Rules to Cement Its Grip on Prediction Markets

In brief

• The CFTC sent the White House's OIRA two rules on Sept. 28 that would redraw the "swap" definition around event contracts: a proposed rule including them as swaps, and an interim final rule excluding "casino-style gambling products."
• The "swap" label is central to a jurisdictional fight—if contracts are swaps, they fall under CFTC authority and beyond state gambling regulators—amid conflicting appeals-court rulings now before the Supreme Court.
• It extends a post-Clarity Act pattern of the CFTC writing its own rules, as integrity questions mount.

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission is moving to lock in its authority over prediction markets, sending the White House two rules that would redraw the legal definition of a "swap" around event contracts, the yes-or-no wagers traded on platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket.

The regulator submitted both proposals to the Office of Information and Regulatory Affairs, the White House arm that reviews federal rules before publication, on Sept. 28.

The first, a proposed rule identified as RIN 3038-AF82, would further define the term "swap" to explicitly include event contracts and will head to public comment. The second, an interim final rule (RIN 3038-AF81), would exclude "casino-style gambling products" from the swap definition and could take effect upon approval. The CFTC classified both as not economically significant, and their full text isn't yet public.