CLARITY Act Faces Make-or-Break September: What Do Prediction Markets Say?

The crypto industry’s biggest U.S. legislative push faces a critical September test as lawmakers race to advance the CLARITY Act before November’s midterm elections complicate its path through Congress.

Sep. 15 as Turning Point?

CNBC hosts Tanaya Macheel and Talia Kaplan discussed on Tuesday that the procedural vote scheduled for Sep. 15 has become the center of attention.

Following months of negotiations aimed at securing the 60 votes needed for passage, the remaining major roadblocks are rules governing stablecoin rewards and ethics restrictions applying to public officials.

President Trump’s crypto interests have emerged as a central obstacle to a bipartisan agreement.

Sen. Ruben Gallego (D-Ariz.), one of two Democrats who supported advancing the bill from the Senate Banking Committee in May, said there still is “a chance," while stressing that both sides need to compromise.

Industry participants are also becoming increasingly skeptical that legislation of this magnitude can clear Congress so close to the midterms.

Polymarket currently prices only a 15% chance of CLARITY being signed into law in 2026.

Regulators Prepare a Plan B

Failure of the CLARITY Act would not necessarily stop U.S. crypto regulation from advancing.