The index is a measure of the price difference between the two exchanges.
On July 26, as the chat shows, the premium was already deeply negative, at roughly -0.08% to -0.10%. It subsequently remained below zero through much of July 26–30. The index briefly approached the zero line around July 28–30. However, there was no sustainable positive trend.
Things started to rapidly deteriorate around July 30 and July 31. The premium moved sharply lower (-0.14% to -0.15% at its weakest points).
It then recovered somewhat during the first days of August, but it remained firmly negative.
The picture improved temporarily between Aug. 4 and Aug. 10. The index climbed toward and above the zero line. It reached approximately 0.08%–0.11% around Aug. 7–10, with the strongest readings near Aug. 9–10.
That improvement, however, was short-lived. Around Aug. 10, the index fell rapidly from levels above 0.10% toward zero and then into negative territory.
During Aug. 11 and 12, the premium oscillated around the zero line.
The weakness became more pronounced on Aug. 13 and 14. The index moved progressively lower, with the chart showing readings around -0.05% before falling toward approximately -0.10%. By Aug. 14, the decline had become particularly sharp.
What should one read into this?
Such a trend might indicate weaker buying pressure.
Still, a negative Coinbase Premium Index should not be treated as definitive evidence of institutional Bitcoin outflows.
Beyond institutional demand, the indicator can be affected by market structure, liquidity, arbitrage as well as various other factors.
In the meantime, Bitcoin continues to hover around the $63,000 level.
