Decoding Bitcoin’s midterm setup amid hawkish Fed risks

The next 48 hours could make or break Bitcoin’s November setup.

The FOMC meeting on the 28th of October could be a major turning point for BTC momentum for the remaining Q4. After BTC.D fell below 60%, and with Bitcoin falling below its key resistance of $80k, a retest of $75k is increasingly in play.

This potentially adds further downside pressure to crypto heading into November. Speaking to AMBCrypto ahead of the Fed meeting, Vugar Usi, CEO of MEXC, noted:

The Federal Reserve is expected to keep interest rates unchanged at its October meeting as it balances rising inflation with a weakening labor market. With September payrolls increasing by just 29,000, policymakers may prefer to wait before making another move. 

Therefore, for Bitcoin, the key question now is whether the Fed signals more rate hikes “ahead.”

The chart above shows that US inflation increased by 0.3% points to 3.7% in September, which is the highest rise since May 2026. This sticky inflation due to higher energy prices may hinder the Fed’s ability to cut rates.

As a result, Bitcoin could re-enter a bearish phase if officials hint that rates might remain higher for longer. 

However, what if the market has already factored in this hawkish approach from the Fed? Even if the Fed adopts a cautious approach, could BTC still rocket?